Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bearish Retracement and Key Support Levels
Bitcoin has been experiencing a bearish retracement after failing to break above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages around the $64K mark. This pullback suggests a shift in market sentiment towards selling pressure.
Technical Analysis
- **Daily Chart:** The price action on the daily chart indicates that sellers are in control, with the 100-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross.” This pattern reinforces the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has entered a key support zone defined by the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone could offer temporary relief from the downtrend, leading to a period of sideways consolidation.
- **4-Hour Chart:** On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price has seen a clear bearish rejection at the $64K resistance level, resulting in a steady decline. The failure to establish new higher highs confirms the bearish trend, with lower highs and lower lows indicating intense selling activity. The critical support zone is defined by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. If sellers push the price below this range, the next target is the $50K support level, where significant buying pressure may emerge. Alternatively, if Bitcoin finds support at this level, a bullish rebound towards the $60K resistance could occur.
On-Chain Analysis
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, a metric that measures the aggressiveness of buyers and sellers in the futures market, shows a significant decline after Bitcoin’s rejection from the $64K level. This drop indicates a surge in market sell orders, reflecting a broader sentiment of distribution among traders. This behavior underscores growing bearish expectations as traders are positioning for a possible breakdown and further price declines, potentially towards the $50K support level. The increase in sell-side aggression indicates a short-term continuation of the bearish trend.
